The Extra-Tropical Storm Surge model (ETSS) is a modification of the Sea Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model that uses hourly 13 km Global Forecast System (GFS) wind and pressure outputs as atmospheric forcing to predict storm surge from large extra-tropical storms. It produces hourly storm tide inundation (based on storm surge + tide) for the continental U.S. and Alaska coastlines. It utilizes an initial water level condition in each computational domain that is derived by the average of the 5-day anomalies for the various stations in those domains, where the station specific 5- day anomaly is defined as the 5-day average hourly anomaly (observation – (surge + tide)). Additionally, the post processing stage combines the ETSS surge guidance with station based tidal predictions and observations (where available) to create bias-corrected total water level guidance.

Additional ETSS Information:

MDL Storm Surge Webpage