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The National Blend of Models (NBM) is a nationally consistent and skillful suite of calibrated forecast guidance based on a blend of both NWS and non-NWS numerical weather prediction model data and post-processed model guidance. The inputs range from high resolution hourly guidance like the HRRR to global ensembles such as the GEFS. The NBM is initialized every hour, using the latest available guidance. Each hour, there are 6 new NWP or MOS products out of roughly 21 inputs that are freshly updated. The goal of the NBM is to create a highly accurate, skillful and consistent starting point for the gridded forecast. This new way to produce NDFD grids will be helpful providing forecasters with a suite of information to use for their forecasts. The NBM is considered an important part of the efforts to evolve NWS capabilities to achieve a Weather-Ready Nation. The first version of the NBM was released January 6, 2016 in CONUS AWIPS 16.1.1, after Congress mandated that the NWS develop a blended model approach following Hurricane Sandy in 2012. Initial versions of the NBM have been mainly designed to fill deterministic service program gaps in areas like aviation, marine, fire weather, and winter weather. The NBM will become increasingly probabilistic with time to fully support Impact Based Decision Support Services.
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