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NBM Version 4.0, which was implemented on Tuesday, September 29th, 2020, will continue to fill existing product gaps requested by the Aviation, Water Resources, and Marine and Tropical NWS Service Program Offices.

A few highlights associated with this release include:
(1) The continued infusion of cutting edge science advancements in the area of probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasting (PQPF) and the addition of calibrated PQPF guidance for the Alaska, Puerto Rico, and Oceanic domains;
(2) The addition of probabilistic daytime maximum (MaxT) and nighttime minimum (MinT) temperatures in the form of percentiles and exceedance values for particular thresholds for the CONUS domain;
(3) Standard deviations for temperature, dew point temperature, percentage of sky cover, convective available potential energy (CAPE), and significant wave height for the CONUS, Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico domains;
(4) Improvement in the deterministic aviation guidance routinely used in daily airport operational planning through 84 hours for Terminal Aerodrome forecasts (TAFs));
(5) 6-h Probability of Thunder for the CONUS, Alaska, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and Oceanic domains;
(6) The addition of several new elements to the Guam domain; and
(7) The addition of new weather elements in the NBM text product along with improvements to the probabilistic text message product. There will be over 2,000 new station text locations added (bringing the total to about 9,000), including most of the CONUS airports.

It is anticipated that these upgrades will benefit the NWS in its mission towards better Impact Decision Support Services (IDSS).


Additional information on the NBM may be found here: https://www.weather.gov/mdl/nbm_home



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