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The SREF system was developed to provide a multi-regional model, short-range (0-3 days)
ensemble prediction system to provide operationally relevant and useful guidance on the
probability distribution of weather elements or events. The probabilistic information provided by
SREF will help meet the NWS FY05 strategic goal of providing probabilistic gridded products to
the NWS/WFOs, service centers and other users.
The NCEP multi-Initial Condition (multi-IC) and multi-model Short Range Ensemble Forecasting (SREF) system has been operationally running since May 2001 (Du et al. 2003).
This system is run four times per day (03, 09, 15 and 21 UTC) at 40km (grid 212), 32 km (grid 221) and 16 km (grid 132) with 21 model members.
Forecasts are output at 1 hour intervals for the first 39 hours and then 3 hour intervals out to 87 hours.
SREF web page:
SREF Bias-Correction presentation:
SREF Home Page: